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Ulf Gerdtham. Photo.

Ulf Gerdtham

Professor

Ulf Gerdtham. Photo.

Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality by Achieving Healthy Dietary Goals for the Swedish Population : A Macro-Simulation Modelling Study

Author

  • Sanjib Saha
  • Jonas Nordstrom
  • Ulf-G Gerdtham
  • Irene Mattisson
  • Peter M Nilsson
  • Peter Scarborough

Summary, in English

The objective is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in Sweden if adults adhere to the official dietary recommendations. We used an age-group and sex-specific epidemiological macro-simulation model to estimate preventable deaths due to the discrepancies between actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake) and age- and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases together compared with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000 iterations was performed to produce the 95% uncertainty intervals (UI). The model predicts that 6405 (95% UI: 5086⁻7086) deaths could be prevented or delayed if the Swedish population could adhere to official dietary recommendations in a year. More deaths would be saved for men than women. The recommendations for fruits and vegetables could have saved 47% of the deaths, followed by fiber intake (32%). For men, fruits and vegetables could have saved more compared to other dietary components, while for women dietary fiber was the prominent factor. Public health policies should consider ensuring healthy eating practices for the Swedish population.

Department/s

  • Health Economics
  • AgriFood Economics Centre, Lund University School of Economics and Management
  • Department of Economics
  • EpiHealth: Epidemiology for Health
  • Internal Medicine - Epidemiology

Publishing year

2019-03-12

Language

English

Publication/Series

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health

Volume

16

Issue

5

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

MDPI AG

Topic

  • Nutrition and Dietetics
  • Public Health, Global Health, Social Medicine and Epidemiology

Status

Published

Research group

  • Health Economics
  • Internal Medicine - Epidemiology

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 1660-4601