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Ulf Gerdtham. Photo.

Ulf Gerdtham

Professor

Ulf Gerdtham. Photo.

Modelling the Effect of Compliance with Nordic Nutrition Recommendations on Cardiovascular Disease and Cancer Mortality in the Nordic Countries

Author

  • Sanjib Saha
  • Jonas Nordström
  • Irene Mattisson
  • Peter Nilsson
  • Ulf-Göran Gerdtham

Summary, in English

The objective of this study is to estimate the number of deaths attributable to cardiovascular diseases and diet-related cancers that could be prevented or delayed in the Nordic countries, i.e., Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Iceland, if adults adhere to the Nordic Nutrition Recommendations (NNR). A sex- and age-group specific epidemiological macro-simulation model was used to estimate the preventable deaths due to the differences between country specific actual intake and recommended intake of changes in food components. Data included in the model are a baseline scenario (actual dietary intake), a counterfactual scenario (recommended intake), and age-and sex-specific mortality for cardiovascular and diet-related cancer diseases, together with the total population risk of a specific year. Monte Carlo analyses with 5000 iterations were performed to produce the 95% uncertainty intervals. The model predicts that Iceland would benefit the most by adhering to the NNR, followed by Finland. In all the Nordic countries, the highest benefit would be achieved by adhering to the fruits and vegetable intakes, except Denmark, where a lower recommended intake of salt would provide the highest benefit. For men, fruits and vegetables could have saved more lives compared to other dietary components for all the Nordic countries, while for women, dietary fiber was the most prominent factor, except in Iceland. The Nordic Council should consider policies for promoting healthy eating according to the needs of each country.

Department/s

  • Health Economics
  • AgriFood Economics Centre, Lund University School of Economics and Management
  • Internal Medicine - Epidemiology
  • EpiHealth: Epidemiology for Health
  • Centre for Economic Demography
  • Department of Economics

Publishing year

2019-06-25

Language

English

Publication/Series

Nutrients

Volume

11

Issue

6

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

MDPI AG

Topic

  • Cancer and Oncology
  • Nutrition and Dietetics

Status

Published

Research group

  • Health Economics
  • Internal Medicine - Epidemiology

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 2072-6643