The browser you are using is not supported by this website. All versions of Internet Explorer are no longer supported, either by us or Microsoft (read more here: https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/microsoft-365/windows/end-of-ie-support).

Please use a modern browser to fully experience our website, such as the newest versions of Edge, Chrome, Firefox or Safari etc.

Kaveh Majlesi. Photo.

Kaveh Majlesi

Associate professor

Kaveh Majlesi. Photo.

Importing political polarization? The electoral consequences of rising trade exposure

Author

  • David Autor
  • David Dorn
  • Gordon Hanson
  • Kaveh Majlesi

Summary, in English

Has rising import competition contributed to the polarization of US politics? Analyzing multiple measures of political expression and results of congressional and presidential elections spanning the period 2000 through 2016, we find strong though not definitive evidence of an ideological realignment in trade- exposed local labor markets that commences prior to the divisive 2016 US presidential election. Exploiting the exogenous component of rising import competition by China, we find that trade exposed electoral districts simultaneously exhibit growing ideological polarization in some domains, meaning expanding support for both strong- left and strong- right views, and pure rightward shifts in others. Specifically, trade- impacted commuting zones or districts saw an increasing market share for the Fox News channel (a rightward shift), stronger ideological polarization in campaign contributions (a polarized shift), and a relative rise in the likelihood of electing a Republican to Congress (a rightward shift). Trade- exposed counties with an initial majority White population became more likely to elect a GOP conservative, while trade- exposed counties with an initial majority- minority population became more likely to elect a liberal Democrat, where in both sets of counties, these gains came at the expense of moderate Democrats (a polarized shift). In presidential elections, counties with greater trade exposure shifted toward the Republican candidate (a rightward shift). These results broadly support an emerging political economy literature that connects adverse economic shocks to sharp ideological realignments that cleave along racial and ethnic lines and induce discrete shifts in political preferences and economic policy.

Department/s

  • Department of Economics
  • Centre for Economic Demography
  • CIRCLE

Publishing year

2020

Language

English

Pages

3139-3183

Publication/Series

American Economic Review

Volume

110

Issue

10

Document type

Journal article

Publisher

American Economic Association

Topic

  • Economics

Status

Published

ISBN/ISSN/Other

  • ISSN: 0002-8282